Equities Analysis
Public equities represent residual claims on corporate assets and cash flows. They are the primary driver of long-term real wealth creation in institutional portfolios, owing to the Equity Risk Premium (ERP).
The Equity Risk Premium
The ERP is the excess return that investing in the stock market provides over a risk-free rate. It compensates investors for taking on the relatively higher risk of equity investing.
| Period | Implied ERP (US) | Historical ERP (Geometric) |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 - 2020 | 5.2% - 6.1% | 4.8% |
| 2023 | 4.6% | 5.1% (1928-2023) |
Factor Investing (Smart Beta)
Modern equity allocation often diverges from market-cap weighting to target specific, empirically documented drivers of return (factors).
- Value: Equities priced low relative to fundamentals (e.g., low P/B or P/E).
- Size: Small-cap companies historically outperforming large-caps over long horizons.
- Momentum: Stocks that have outperformed recently tend to continue outperforming in the near term.
- Quality: Companies with high profitability, stable earnings, and low leverage.